基于极大似然估计的路段交通流量预测  

Forecast Model of Road Section Traffic Flow Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

作　　者：刘世超[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2005年第2期245-248,共4页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

摘　　要：基于对交通流量预测存在的问题的分析,用极大似然估计法对路段交通流量进行预测.这种方法的实质,是将连续的观测时段的上游观测量作为自变量,用极大似然估计法估计出观测量与下游预测量之间的关系,从而预测交通流量.实例结果表明,预测值与实际值的最大误差率为5. 76%.Based on analyzing the shortcoming of present traffic flow forecasting, the maximum likelihood estimation was used to forecast the traffic flow of road sections. The essence of this method is that upstream observational variables in a successional time region are looked as explanatory variables, and the maximum likelihood estimation is applied to seek the relationship between the observational variables and the variables to be predicted to forecast the traffic flow of a road section. An example shows that the maximum error rate between the forecasted and actual values of traffic flow is 5.76%.

关 键 词：交通流 预测 极大似然估计 似然比 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]