北方农牧交错带降水资源变化周期与粮食作物产量的灰色预测——以定西县为例  

Rainfall periodicity and gray prediction of crop yield in the farming-pastoral area of northern China——A case study of Dingxi county

作　　者：闫丽娟[1] 张恩和[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学农学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《草业科学》2005年第4期66-68,共3页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：澳大利亚ACIAR资助项目"提高甘肃黄土高原西部雨养农业系统的生产力与持续性的研究"(LWZ/1999/094)

摘　　要：根据定西县气候资源的变化周期,运用灰色动态模型对定西县1958-2000 年粮食作物的平均产量进行预测。结果表明:预测值与实际值的误差在8%以内,精度较高,具有一定的实践运用前景。根据灰色预测分析区域粮食生产的发展趋势,对粮食安全具有积极意义。In term of the variation periodicity of rainfall, Gray Model of crop yield was built and used to predict the crop yield of Dingxi county. The prediction results showed that the difference between the predicted value and measured value were no more than 8%. the prediction precision was high and thereby the Gray Model could play a good role in crop production of Dingxi county.

关 键 词：农牧交错带 降水 粮食生产 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：S165.27[农业科学—农业气象学]