桔小实蝇传入风险的模糊综合评估  

Assessment on the introduction risk of Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel) through imported fruits with fuzzy mathematics

作　　者：张润杰[1] 侯柏华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学生物防治国家重点实验室昆虫学研究所,广州510275

出　　处：《昆虫学报》2005年第2期221-226,共6页Acta Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划"973"项目 (2002CB111405);国家自然科学基金项目 (30471162)

摘　　要：根据国际有害生物风险评估方案, 本文提出了桔小实蝇Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) 随进口水果传入风险评估的参数指标体系, 包括一级评估指标5个: 进口水果种类, 进口水果数量, 进口水果的虫害率, 运输途中害虫存活率, 检疫管理的有效性; 二级评估指标9个: 原产地桔小实蝇的防治情况, 水果装运前的处理情况, 桔小实蝇对水果的嗜好性, 水果运输期, 运输条件, 运输途中极端限制因子的出现情况, 检疫抽样百分比, 检出率, 检疫措施的处理效果等。采用权重分析法确定各个指标的权重, 在此基础上, 应用模糊决策的基本理论和方法, 建立桔小实蝇传入风险的模糊综合评估模型。模拟评估结果认为, 进口水果装运前的杀虫处理和水果到岸时的检疫处理对风险值的影响很大, 进口水果的数量以及运输途中是否出现极端限制因子也对风险值有明显影响。The introduction risk of Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel)through imported fruits was assessed using fuzzy mathematics. An assessing parameter set was established, which included 5 primary parameters (species of imported fruits, volume of imported fruits, injury rate of imported fruits, survival of B. dorsalis during the shipping, and efficacy of quarantine) and 9 secondary parameters (occurrence degree in the production area, control efficacy in production area, disinfestations before shipping, shipping period, condition of shipping, limiting factor occurrence during shipping, percentage of sampling, injury rate of checked samples, and effects of quarantine treatment). The weight for each parameter was calculated through weight-analyzing method, and a fuzzy decision model was developed to determine the introduction risk of B. dorsalis. Simulation results show that disinfestation treatment before export and quarantine inspection to imported fruits arrived at port are very important to reduce risk. The volume of imported fruits and the limiting factor occurrence during shipping also contribute significantly to the value of introduction risk.

关 键 词：桔小实蝇 生物入侵 传入风险 模糊决策 评估 

分 类 号：Q968[生物学—昆虫学]