基于反馈的群体疏散行为定性预测  

Qualitative Prediction on Group Evacuation via Feedback Analysis

作　　者：邵晨曦[1] 张毅[1,2] 张俊涛[1] 白方周[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学计算机系 [2]南京陆军指挥学院,南京210045

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2005年第4期978-981,共4页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(69974038);2004年安徽省重点科技计划项目。

摘　　要：在群体疏散中,考虑到不同人群之间的交互作用,基于系统动力学反馈的思想,利用交互作用群体矩阵的预测能力来预测群体行为。通过对系统中的变量施加干扰,观察变量之间的作用和反馈来分析系统定性预测矩阵和定量预测矩阵之间的一致性。通过对系统的稳定性进行分析,确定系统结构是否合理,稳定性高则合理,低则需要对系统结构进行调整,以减少疏散过程中的冲突。During the course of group evacuation, group behaviors are predicted by considering the interaction between different group, based on system dynamic feedback analysis, and by utilizing the predictive capacity of the interactive group matrix on group behavior. By exerting disturbance on the variable, the interaction and feedback are observed between variables to analyze the consistency between qualitative prediction matrix and quantitative prediction matrix of the system. By analyzing the stability of the system to make sure if the structure of the system is right. Higher stability is right, and lower stability needs to adjust the system structure to reduce the collision in the course of evacuation.

关 键 词：反馈 群体矩阵 定性仿真 系统动力擘 稳定性 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]