福建西北地区早稻穗颈瘟的气象预测模型及其应用  

Meteorological Forecast Model for Early-season Rice Panicle Blast in the Northwest of Fujian Province and Its Application

作　　者：陈家豪[1] 关瑞峰 徐宗焕[3] 孔丽萍 吴仁烨[1] 林燕金[1] 张春来[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学,福建福州350002 [2]福建省植保植检站,福建福州350003 [3]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2005年第2期205-209,共5页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：福建省科技厅资助项目(98-Z-101)

摘　　要：采用逐步回归统计方法,对闽西北地区永安和尤溪2个县(市)21年(1980～2000年)中与早稻穗颈瘟相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出影响早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中永安市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的降雨日数距平(X19)、3月下旬的露日数(X62)和4月下旬的雾日数(X71);尤溪县的气象预测因子为3月中旬的雾日数(X67)和5月上旬的雾日数(X72).依此建立了两地早稻穗颈瘟预测的数学模型,对模型进行了2年(2001～2002年)的验证,并对2003年早稻穗颈瘟进行了预测应用.Meteorological factors relating to the early-season rice panicle blast in Northwest of Fujian Province in 21a(from 1980 to 2000) were picked out by Stepwise Multiple Regress,and the key forecast factors were selected. The meteorological forecast factors of Yong’an City were as follows: Raining days in the middle ten days of March(X_(19)),dew days in the last ten days of March(X_(62))and foggy days in the last ten days of April(X_(71)); the meteorological forecast factors of Youxi County are foggy days in the middle ten days of March(X_(67)) and foggy days in the first ten days of May (X_(72)).Then a mathematical model for the forecast of the early-season rice panicle blast in the two cities were designed and proved in 2 years (from 2001 to 2002).The model was practically used to forecast the early-season rice panicle blast in 2003.

关 键 词：早稻 穗颈瘟 气象因子 预测模型 福建西北地区 

分 类 号：S165.28[农业科学—农业气象学]