应用集中度及圆形分布法分析广州市1984至2003年肾综合征出血热季节性特征  

An Analysis on the Seasonal Characters of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome from 1984 to 2003 in Guangzhou Applying the Muster and Circular Distribution Methods

作　　者：罗雷[1] 王鸣[1] 周端华[1] 刘于飞[1] 邱季春[1] 陈小霜[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省广州市疾病预防控制中心传染科,广州510080

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2005年第2期127-129,共3页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

摘　　要：目的探讨广州市1984～2003年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发生的季节特征。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法对广州市近20年来HFRS疫情资料进行处理分析。结果集中度法表明广州市历年HFRS发生的季节性不明显(M=0.2413<0.3);圆形分布平均角计算和检验假设表明广州市历年HFRS存在一定的季节高峰,病例主要集中在每年的上半年(12月中旬至次年的7月上旬);1984～1992年和1993～2003年HFRS季节分布差异不明显(M均<0.3),两个时期病例发生的季节特征亦无差别。结论广州市历年HFRS的发生呈散在分布,无明显的季节高峰;改革开放以来,外来流动人口的增加并未根本改变广州市HFRS流行特征。Objective Explore the seasonal characters of HFRS from 1984 to 2003 in Guangzhou. Methods Dispose and analyze the data of HFRS epidemic situation in twenty years in Guangzhou applying the Muster and Circular distribution methods. Results By the Muster method, in 1984-2003,M=0.241 3, By Circular distribution method, ~r= ~0.303 4 ,=~67.803 9 ,s=~88.487 4 ,~α±s =(^-20.68 ,~156.29 ),In Reileighs test,Z=~68.042 9 ~6.907 8 _^(0.001,∞) . There wasn't significant difference between in 1984-1992 and in 1993-2003 (t=0.24)t_~0.05(∞) =1.96.Conclusion The epidemic character of HFRS in Guangzhou was sporadic in a long run and the seasonal character was indefinite; The HFRS epidemic characters in Guangzhou was unchanged ultimately due to the increasing extra floating population since the reformed and opening up policy actualized in 1992,Guangzhou,China.

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 2003年 圆形分布 广州市 集中度 季节性特征 季节特征 1992年 方法应用 季节分布 改革开放 流行特征 流动人口 行处理 上半年 病例 

分 类 号：Q78[生物学—分子生物学] S186[农业科学—农业基础科学]