用GPS可降水量资料对一次大—暴雨过程的分析  

Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event withGPS Data of Precipitation

作　　者：姚建群[1] 丁金才[1] 王坚捍[1] 朱文耀 宋淑丽 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030 [2]上海天文台

出　　处：《气象》2005年第4期48-52,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程资助 (KJCX2 SW T1 3);"上海地区GPS综合应用网"资助

摘　　要：利用2 0 0 2年9月1 0～2 0日GPS的可降水量资料与实况降水场做了分析比较,结果表明,每30分钟的可降水量连续观测资料对实际降水预报有着一定的指导意义。首先,可降水量第一次达到及最后一次出现50mm的时间与实际降水的开始、结束时间有着较好的对应关系,而可降水量≥50mm的持续时间越长,实际降水量也就越大,反之则相反;其次,可降水量的3小时及2 4小时变化对预报未来降水区域和雨量分布有着一定的指示作用;最后,可降水量在降水过程中不同阶段的趋势变化反映了50 0hPa流场、70 0hPa水汽通量场的变化,这为实际降水预报中水汽的来源及输送提供了更有利的依据。The results between the GPS/PWV data during 10-20 September 2002 and the actual surface rainfall are analyzed. It shows that the consecutive observation data of precipitable water vapor per 30 minutes would be instructive for the forecasting of actual rainfall. First,the first arrival of PWV and last appearance of 50mm PWV would correspond well to the beginning and end of actual precipitation. When the precipitable water vapor larger than 50mm lasts longer, the actual rainfall will be more. Whereas the result will be contrary. Next, the change of rainfall within 3 and 24 hours would be instructive to forecast the future rainfall region and rainfall distribution. Finally, the trend of precipitable water vapor in the various stages can reflect the change of 500hPa field and 700hPa vapor field. It has shown us more useful basis to clarify the vapor source and transmission in actual rainfall forecast.

关 键 词：降水量资料 GPS 暴雨过程 2002年9月 可降水量 500hPa 降水预报 分析比较 观测资料 对应关系 持续时间 指示作用 雨量分布 趋势变化 降水过程 水汽通量 降水场 小时 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P228