基于D-S证据理论的群决策专家意见集结方法  

The Expertise Aggregation Method in Group Decision Making Based on the D-S Evidence Theory

作　　者：吕文红[1] 吴祈宗[1] 郭银景[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]山东科技大学信息与电气工程学院,山东青岛266510

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2005年第2期10-13,25,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

摘　　要：将D S证据理论应用于群决策,指出其优势在于应用基本可信度分配函数描述专家意见,并能区分对所描述对象不知道和否定的差异。在专家意见集结上,Dempster证据合成规则有一定的局限性,当证据发生冲突时,会得到不合理的结果。定义了证据间的分歧度,提出一种专家意见集结方法,使得专家意见发生冲突时亦可得到合理的集结结果。We apply D-S theory to group decision making process, clarify the advantage of D-S theory in group decision and point out the difference between negation ignorance and negation. D-S evidence theory has some limitations in expertise aggregation. When the evidences are conflicting, the Dempster's rule of combination may educe an unreasonable result. We give a definition to describe the degree of bifurcation between evidences, and bring forward an expertise aggregating method. The method can educe a rational result even if the expertise from different expert has bifurcation.

关 键 词：运筹学 专家意见集结 证据理论 群决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]