中国夏季降水与太平洋SSTA年代际变化关系的初步研究  

STUDY ON THE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PACIFIC SSTA AND THAT OF RAINFALL IN CHINA

作　　者：吴胜安[1] 江志红[1] 刘志雄 穆松宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害与环境变化重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]娄底市气象局,湖南娄底417000

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2005年第2期153-162,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目40375032资助

摘　　要：利用1951～2001年逐月NCEP再分析高度场、风场资料,COADS海表温度资料及中国147个台站逐月降水资料,运用SVD分析、SVD与回归分析相结合等方法,研究了太平洋SSTA与中国夏季降水年代际变化的相互关系,发现热带西太平洋是影响中国华南降水年代际变化的关键区,1950年代～1970年代后期,该海域SSTA为正,对应中国长江以南地区的夏季降水偏多,而长江以北则偏少;1970年代以后反之;影响中国长江中下游地区及其两侧降水年代际变化的关键区在中纬中部北太平洋,1970年代后期～1990年代前期,该海域SSTA为负,对应长江中下游夏季降水偏多,其两侧降水偏少;影响中国东北降水年代际变化的关键区是低纬中太平洋,1970年代～1980年代前期,低纬中太平洋SSTA为负,与之对应,中国东北夏季降水偏少;1950年代～1960年代中期、1990年代前、中期则反之。进一步对太平洋SSTA年代际变化影响中国夏季降水年代际变化的可能机制作了初步的研究。Using the NCEP monthly height and wind fields at different levels from 1951 to 2001, SSTA field of COADS, monthly rainfall from 147 stations in China, and with SVD and regression analysis, we research the relationships between decadal variability of SSTA on Pacific and that of summer rainfall in China. We find that the tropical Pacific is the key area that affects the rainfall in south China, the SSTA in this area in anaphase from the 1950s to the 1970s is positive, corresponding summer rainfall in the south of Changjiang river is more, that in the north of Changjiang river is less;the condition after 1970s is opposite. The key area that affects the rainfall of middle reaches of the Changjiang river is in the middle latitude of the north of Pacific, from the anaphase of the 1970s to the prophase of the 1990s,the SSTA is negative,the rainfall in the middle reaches of Changjiang river is more, both sides of it is less;The key area that affects the rainfall of the northeast and north China is in the low latitude middle Pacific,from the 1970s to the prophase of the 1980s,SSTA of the area is negative,corresponding rainfall in summer in the northeast of China is less,from the 1950s to the metaphase of 1960s, the prophase and the metaphase of 1990s, conditions are opposite. Furthermore,we study the probable mechanism for SSTA in Pacific to affect the rainfall in China.

关 键 词：夏季降水 年代际变化 太平洋SSTA 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学]