东亚夏季风区的低频振荡对长江中下游旱涝的影响  

IMPACTS OF THE LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATION IN EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ON THE DROUGHT AND FLOODING IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

作　　者：琚建华[1] 赵尔旭[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局培训中心,北京100081 [2]云南大学东南亚气候与环境研究中心,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2005年第2期163-171,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40365001)资助

摘　　要：利用相关分析与合成分析的方法,讨论了东亚夏季风区的低频振荡及其与我国长江中下游地区旱涝的关系。研究发现,东亚强季风涌年,准30～60d振荡的影响显著,容易造成长江中下游多雨;东亚弱季风涌年,准30～60d振荡减弱,10～20d低频振荡为主要的振荡周期,容易造成长江中下游干旱。研究结果初步揭示了低频振荡对我国长江中下游地区旱涝的影响。研究表明,东亚夏季风中低频振荡传播规律对长江中下游地区降水的中长期预报有重要的指导意义。The relation between the low frequency oscillation in East Asian summer monsoon and the drought and flooding in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River is studied in this paper. Our study shows that the low frequency oscillation of 30～60d is the most remarkable in the strong summer monsoon surge years in the South China Sea and easily causes the flooding in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, in the weak summer monsoon surge years in the Southern China Sea, the low frequency oscillation of 10～20d is more active than that of 30～60d and easily causes the drought. The propagation of monsoon surge low frequency oscillation is important to the precipitation’s medium and long range prediction in the middle and lower valley of Yangtze River.

关 键 词：长江中下游 旱涝 季风涌 低频振荡 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]