江苏前兆观测年变周期异常与中强地震研究  

Study on the relationship between the annual variation period anomaly of precursor observation and the moderately strong earthquakes in Jiangsu

作　　者：郑江蓉[1] 徐桂明[1] 田建民[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震局,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《华南地震》2005年第1期32-42,共11页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：江苏省科技发展基金项目(BS200268)

摘　　要：从前兆观测资料的年变规律着手,选择了江苏前兆观测台网中资料精度较高、年变周期显著的新沂地电阻率和南通短水准两个手段5条测向1990～2002年的观测资料,建立它们的年变周期模型,与实际观测进行对比研究,结合震例,分析其年变畸形的预测效能和映震特征。结果表明:有正常背景年变规律的测向,可以建立年变周期模型,一旦实际观测出现了偏离年变周期模型的变化,就往往是地震前兆异常的一种反映,如果出现与理论值相差60天以上的异常变化时,其预报效能明显提高,可作为一项中短临异常指标进行地震预报。Through dealing with the observational data of five observational means of XingYi's earth resistivity and Nanton's short levelling in five determination directions during 1990～2002 that the precision of data is higher and annual varivation period of them is more obvious, starting with precursory observational data of annual variation rule and combining the earthquake cases, the theoretical model of annual variation period has been established and the prediction efficiency and the earthquake-reflecting feature of annual variation deformity have been analysed by contrasting to actual measurement . The result shows that theoretical model of annual variation period can be established if observational means of annual variation is normal. Once some changes which deviate from the theoretical model appear in the actual observation, they are often the reflection of precursory anomaly of earthquake . If abnormal variations have taken place between the actual data and theoretical data for above sixty days, the prediction efficacy will be improved distinctly and it may be regarded as an index of medium-short term anomaly to forecast earthquake.

关 键 词：地电阻率 短水准测量 前兆观测资料 年变周期 江苏 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]