基于德尔菲法的未知水雷性能分析  

Performance Analysis of Unknown Mine Based on Delphi Technique

作　　者：胡红波[1] 邱继进[1] 马爱民[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院,辽宁大连116018

出　　处：《情报指挥控制系统与仿真技术》2005年第2期12-14,共3页Information Command Control System and Simulation Technology

摘　　要：战时,布雷方所布水雷的参数设定对另一方来说往往是未知的,为了避免扫雷的盲目性,扫雷一方需要对未知水雷的性能有一定的了解。为了对待扫雷区中未知水雷的性能作出估测,目前常用的预测方法有层次分析法、灰色系统预测法和回归预测等,根据水雷战偶然性强、随机因素多等特点,通过引入德尔菲法,分析了利用该方法估测未知水雷性能的可行性,提出了确定水雷性能模糊集隶属度的方法。实例证明,其结果可为扫雷作业方式的合理选择提供参考,从而提高了扫雷的效率。Performance parameter of mines laid by one side is usually unknown to the other side in war. The sweeping side need to have some acquisition of the performance of unknown mines to avoid sweeping mines aimlessly. In order to estimate the performance of unknown mines in mine field for sweeping, at present, forecasting method usually used is such as AHP, Grey System forecast, Regression forecast, etc. Through importing Delphi technique, the paper analyzes the feasibility of estimating the performance of unknown mines and put forth the method of confirming performance fuzzy membership by Delphi technique according to the characteristic of mine warfare being highly incidental and stochastic. The result can provide reference for rational choice of sweeping style by an example in the context, so that it improves the efficiency of sweeping mines.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 水雷 估测 水雷性能 

分 类 号：TJ610[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]