福建粮食单产风险预警的马尔科夫方法  

An early warning system of the risk of Fujian annual yield of grain per hectare built by Markov forecasting method

作　　者：徐学荣[1] 林少伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2005年第1期38-40,共3页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：　探讨了粮食单产风险的涵义,给出了测度粮食单产风险的方法,并用马尔科夫预测法建立了福建粮食单产风险的预警系统,得出了未来年份福建粮食单产风险的警度。In this paper, the connotations of the risk of grain yield per hectare are explored and a new method is proposed to measure the risk of grain yield per hectare in Fujian province. Meanwhile, an early warning system of the risk of grain yield is built up and the risk degrees are forecasted by Markov forecasting method.

关 键 词：风险 粮食单产 风险预警 马尔科夫预测法 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]