无偏灰色模型在电力负荷预测中的应用  

The Application and Study in Electric Load Forecasting with No Deviation Grey Model

作　　者：李国辉[1] 朱建良[1] 许克昆[2] 闻彦[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学电气与电子工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]哈尔滨市市郊农电局,黑龙江哈尔滨150076

出　　处：《哈尔滨理工大学学报》2005年第2期87-88,92,共3页Journal of Harbin University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了提高电力负荷预测的准确度,应用无偏灰色预测模型对电网用电量进行了预测,在对无偏灰色模型特性进行了分析的基础上,与传统灰色预测模型进行了对比.理论分析和实例计算均表明,在指数趋势时间序列条件下无偏灰色预测模型较传统灰色预测模型性能优越,相对误差可降低到1%以内,适合在电力负荷预报中推广应用.In order to improve the accuracy of electric power load forecasting, the load of electric power is fore cast with no deviation grey model, based on the character analysis of no deviation grey model. The analyses and instances indicat that the function of no deviation grey model is superior to that of the traditional grey forecasting mode, which is fit to forecast the load more widely.

关 键 词：无偏灰色理论 电力负荷 预测 

分 类 号：TK011[动力工程及工程热物理]