产妇分娩数季节变动的灰色预测分析  

Grey Forecast of The Number Childbearing on Seasonal Change

作　　者：樊爱军[1] 樊民军[2] 

机构地区：[1]第三军医大学基础医学部数学教研室 [2]军事科学院门诊部检验科

出　　处：《中国医院统计》2005年第1期39-41,共3页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

摘　　要：目的　论述和探索灰色预测在产妇分娩季节变动中的应用方式和途径。方法以某医院1997—2001年间各月产妇分娩人数为例,应用灰色系统理论分别对各年的月平均资料序列和各年的分娩总数资料序列建立了GM (1, 1)灰色预测模型,结合不同的各月季节比率对该院2002年各月产妇分娩人数进行了预测和分析。结果所建预测模型拟合精度比文献[1]高。结论灰色预测可应用于产妇分娩季节变动的预测。Objective To explore how to use the method of grey forecast analysis in the number childbearing on seasonal change. Methods For the data of a certain hospital in 1997~2001, by use of grey system theory, grey forecast models GM(1,1) were established on the average number and the total number of each year. The numbers of admissive childbearing in each month in 2002 were predicted and analyzed under the different seasonal ratio of each month.Results The forecast model had higher fitting precision than that in the paper[1]. Conclusion Grey forecast model can be applied to predict the number childbearing on seasonal change.

关 键 词：季节变动 灰色预测分析 1997-2001年 分娩数 产妇分娩 灰色系统理论 灰色预测模型 2002年 季节比率 人数 序列 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R135.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]