大气不稳定度参数与闪电活动的预报  

Atmospheric Instablity Parameters and Forecasting of Ligthning Activity

作　　者：郑栋[1] 张义军[1] 吕伟涛[2] 孟青[2] 何平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2005年第2期196-203,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家科技攻关奥运科技专项(2003BA904B10);国家自然科学基金项目(40475002)共同资助

摘　　要：利用北京地区M LDARS闪电定位系统的观测资料, 结合探空资料, 分析了182个有闪电活动和153个无闪电活动的多个大气不稳定参数与闪电活动的关系。结果表明, 潜在—对流性稳定度指数、抬升指数、对流有效位能和700 hPa相当位温与闪电活动具有较好的相关性, 而中层湿度与闪电活动的相关性没有以上几个参数明显。文中进一步分析了多参数综合预报的闪电活动的概率, 闪电频数和各参数的线性回归关系, 提出了闪电活动预报的诊断指标。本研究对北京地区雷电监测与预警有参考价值。By using M-LDARS single-station lightning location system data and sounding data in 182 lightning activity processes and 153 no-lightning activity processes in Beijing, the relation between atmospheric instability parameter and lightning activity is analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the correlation between the latent-convectiveinstability index, lifted index, convective available potential energy and 700 hPa equivalent potential temperature and lightning activity is good, at the same time, the correlation between middle-level humidity and lightning activity is unobvious. In addition, the probabilityof forecasting the lightning activity when these parameters are colligated and the linear regression relation between lightning frequency and these parameters are analyzed. Then, some diagnosisindexes for lightning forecasting are given. These results can provide the reference for lightning inspection and forecasting in Beijing.

关 键 词：闪电活动 大气不稳度定参数 闪电活动预报 

分 类 号：P427.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]