基于复杂度分析冰芯和石笋代用资料时间序列的研究  

Investigation on the time series of ice core and stalagmite based on the analysis of complexity

作　　者：侯威[1] 封国林[2] 高新全[3] 丑纪范[3] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州225009 [2]国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室 [3]兰州大学大气科学系,兰州730000

出　　处：《物理学报》2005年第5期2441-2447,共7页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 (批准号 :90 4110 0 8;40 2 75 0 3 1);国家重点发展基础研究项目 (批准号 :2 0 0 4CB4183 0 0 )资助的课题 .~~

摘　　要：运用动态非线性时间序列分析方法——Lemper Ziv复杂度 ,分别计算了古里雅冰芯资料和北京石花洞石笋资料的复杂度 ,探讨了复杂度的物理内涵及其在气候变化研究中的意义 ;小波多尺度分解分析表明 ,复杂度序列具有明显的特征周期 ,存在 780年、380年、16 0年和 10 5年的准周期 .进一步研究发现 ,当取不同的窗口长度时 ,复杂度序列的特征基本相同 ;并且复杂度序列的突变和气候突变在时间尺度上有着较好的对应关系 .揭示了近千年来 ,在380年时间尺度上的准周期振荡 ,其振幅一直是在减弱的 ,而且其固有周期频率逐渐减小 .190 0年复杂度开始持续下降 ,192 0年之后变化很小 ,类似于中国 6世纪中期及 12世纪中期的变暖期 ,因此造成 2 0世纪气候变暖的原因还有待于深入研究 .The complexity series of the Guliya (Tibetan plateau) ice core and Shihua cave (Beijing) stalagmite proxy records were respectively calculated in this paper, using a dynamical nonlinear analysis method for time series-Lemper-Ziv complexity algorithm; and the physical implication of Lemper-Ziv complexity and its meaning in the study of climate change were also discussed. The wavelet analysis results show that there exist distinctive quasi-periods of 780-, 380-, 160-, and 105-year in the complexity series. Further investigations indicate that when different window lengths are selected, the characters of the complexity series for a given time series are basically the same, and there exists the coherency between the jumps of the complexity series and the climatic jumps on various timescales. This paper presents, for the first time so far as we know, the oscillation on 380-year timescale in the recent millennium, with amplitude decaying and intrinsic period reducing. The complexity of the time series has gradually reduced since 1900. For the complexity of the stalagmite data, there has been the quasi-equal-amplitude oscillation after 1920, which is similar to the circumstances of the warming epochs over China in the middle of the sixth century and the middle of the twelfth century. Consequently, the reason for the warming in the twentieth century remains to be necessary to study.

关 键 词：小波变换 复杂度 冰芯 古气候学 非线性物理学 

分 类 号：O415[理学—理论物理] P532[理学—物理]