创新产品扩散的多阶段动态模型  

Multi-stage Dynamical Model of Innovation Product Diffusion

作　　者：胡知能[1] 徐玖平[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2005年第4期15-21,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (编号 :70 1 71 0 2 1 );教育部高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划资助项目

摘　　要：　本文在决策理论框架下应用动态分析方法建立了一个包括价格与广告影响因素的多阶段创新产品扩散模式.在耐用品情形下,扩散系统是稳定的,免费商品只能影响产品的扩散进程,但不能影响其最大采用数量.在重复购买情形下,并在一定条件下,扩散系统会趋向于创新产品与竞争产品共存.分析表明多阶段模型包括了Mesak模型与Bass模型为其特例.最后以Internet采用进行了实证分析,结果表明拟合比现有研究更加符合实际.Under the framework of decision theory, this paper presents a multi-stage innovation product diffusion model with the theory of dynamic analysis, which includes the effect of price and advertising. For the durable products, the diffusion system is stable, the free sampling can only affect the process of innovative product diffusion,but not affect the ultimate adopters. For the repeated products, the diffusion process will make the coexistence of the product and its competitive products under certain cases. The paper also shows Mesak model and Bass model are the specific cases of the model. Finally, the paper makes a case study with the internet adoption, the result is better than present study of the internet adoption.

关 键 词：创新产品 产品扩散 动态理论 

分 类 号：O193[理学—数学] C931[理学—基础数学]