我国西北高原地区数值预报的几个科学问题  

Some Scientific Issues on Numerical Weather Prediction in Northwest China

作　　者：薛纪善[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱气象》2005年第1期68-71,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40175028)资助

摘　　要：分析了与我国西北地区数值预报相关的几个主要科学问题。指出随着数值预报模式分辨率的提高与预报的精细化,需要关注不同尺度地形对于大气的动力与热力作用的准确数值描述,包括过去被过滤掉的一些动力过程的描写的精度并解决好次网格地形的作用的参数化。还分析了高原地区资料同化的特殊性与集合预报技术的可能应用等。The main scientific issues related to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the northwest China are reviewed in this paper. It is emphasized that in order to meet the increasing spatial resolution of NWP models and the requirements for the more accurate weather prediction, more attention should be paid to the accurate numerical depiction of the dynamic and heating effects, among which are the dynamic processes neglected in the low resolution models and the sub-grid inhomogeneity of the terrain, the multi scale features of the terrain on the evolution of the weather system. The particularity and importance of the data assimilation and the possible application of ensemble forecast techniques are also stressed.

关 键 词：数值预报 高原 中国西北 科学问题 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]