中国过去2000年气候变化的评估  

Assessment on Climate Change in China for the Last 2000 Years

作　　者：郑景云[1] 王绍武[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京100871

出　　处：《地理学报》2005年第1期21-31,共11页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX3-SW-321);"中国气候与环境演变"评估项目(科技部;中国科学院及国家气象局联合项目)联合资助~~

摘　　要：根据近20年中国在过去2000年气候变化研究领域的主要文献,对中国(特别是中国东部)过去2000年气候变化进行了综合评估。主要结论有(1)在中国东部,虽然20世纪暖期的温暖程度非常明显,但至目前为止的研究结果显示,其温暖程度和波动幅度可能尚未超过过去两千年曾经出现过的最高水平。(2)中国东部降水同样存在数百年的趋势变化,且存在明显的区域差异,特别是华北与江南的低频变化趋势几乎相反。就东部地区的总体变化趋势而言280'sAD以前,相对湿润;自280'sAD开始,逐渐变干;而至1230'sAD以后,则维持在一个相对较干的水平上。(3)中国西部的温度变化趋势与东部基本一致,但中世纪暖期与小冰期不如东部明显。(4)中世纪暖期,中国东部的华北地区相对干旱,江南则相对湿润;而在小冰期,华北地区则相对湿润,且整个东部地区的降水变率增大。The climate change in China was assessed synthetically for the last 2000 years, based on reviewing climatic change research literature published in the last 20 years. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In the 20th century, a warming trend was clearly detected, but for eastern China the fluctuation magnitude was less than the maximum level, which occurred in the last 2000 years. (2) Precipitation showed the inter-centennial tendency having obvious spatial difference, especially in North China and south of the Yangze River, is opposite to the low frequency change trend. With respect to the entire change trend, before 280 AD, the climate was relatively wet but afterwards the climate gradually became dry. Furthermore, after 1230 AD, the climate was in the stabilized state of dryness. (3) The temperature change tendency in eastern China is consistent with western China but there were obvious differences in the magnitude and timing of the cold/warm epoch. (4) During the Medieval Warm Period, the climate was relatively dry in North China, while it was relatively wet in the south of the Yangtze River. In addition, the climate was relatively wet during the Little Ice Age in North China and the precipitation variation became greater in eastern China.

关 键 词：中国 气候变化 过去2000年 气温变化 降水变化 中世纪暖期 小冰期 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P532