T63模式月动力延伸预报高度场的改进实验  

IMPROVED EXPERIMENTS FOR T63 POTENTIAL HEIGHTS BY MONTHLY DYNAMIC EXTENTED-RANGE FORECAST

作　　者：陈丽娟[1] 陈伯民[2] 李维京[1] 王锦贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室 [2]上海市气象科学研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2005年第B03期92-96,共5页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"九五"重中之重项目"短期气候预测系统的总装与业务化试验研究"课题 (96 90 8 0 6)之 96 90 8 0 6 0 1专题;国家自然科学基金项目 (4 0 1 75 0 1 3和 40 0 3 5 0 1 0 );国家气候中心自筹基金课题ZK2 0 0 2C 0 6共同资助。

摘　　要：为克服T63模式月动力延伸预报中纬向平均环流的系统性误差较大的情形 ,文章利用NCEP/NCAR逐候再分析 5 0 0hPa高度场资料和非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法进行逐候纬向平均高度距平场预报。近 30组个例的预报效果分析表明 ,就 1～ 3旬总体而言 ,非线性时空序列预测方法对纬向平均高度距平场的预报优于持续性预报和模式动力延伸预报 ,体现了改善纬向平均高度场的能力。尤其是第 3旬的预报 ,当持续性预报偏差与实况偏差明显增大、动力预报技巧相对于第 1旬和第 2旬降低时 ,相空间重构结果仍然保持一定的优势。In order to overcome the systematic errors founded in monthly dynamical extended-range forecasts of zonal mean potential height for the T63L16 model, Employed were the local approximation of the phase-space reconstruction theory and the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. Used were also monthly pentad-mean historical data at 500 hPa geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Nearly 30 forecast experiments indicate that the first to third dekad results of the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method are better than those of the persistent forecast and the T63L16 model. Especialy when the score skill of the third dekad potential height by the persistent forecast is low and that by the dynamical forecast is also low compared to the first and second dekad results, the forecast skill of the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method still keep its merit.

关 键 词：T63模式月动力延伸预报 高度场 非线性时空序列预测 预报能力 预报模型 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]