微尾鼩种群数量变动及其预测  

FLUCTUATION IN WILD POPULATION SIZE OF ANOUROSOREX SQUAMIPES AND ITS PREDICATION

作　　者：廖文波[1] 胡锦矗[1] 李操[1] 刘涛 蒋北平 

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学珍稀动物研究所,四川南充637002 [2]南充市第十二中学校,四川南充637002 [3]南充市防疫站,四川南充637002

出　　处：《西南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2005年第2期210-213,251,共5页Journal of Southwest Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30170148);四川省重点学科重点资助项目(SZD0420)

摘　　要：根据南充市防疫站1976-2002年和廖文波等2003年9月-2004年8月的鼠形小兽的调查和监测资料,对该地区优势种群微尾鼩(Anourosorexsquamipes)种群数量变动及预测进行了分析。6个时期内微尾鼩种群数量变化在室内生境不具有周期性(s【0.5);室外生境具周期性(s】 0. 5); 1a有6月和11 -12月2次数量高峰,未成年组(Ⅰ)微尾鼩相对密度冬季最高,春季最低,成年Ⅱ组(Ⅲ)夏季最高,冬季最低;利用回归分析法建立了微尾鼩种群成亚比、雌性成亚比和雄性成亚比提前2个月预测种群密度的3个回归方程:Y=0.167X-4.065;Y=0.148X-2.754;Y=0.142X-1.830,发现种群密度的预测值与实测值基本吻合。Based on the data in successive years from 1976 to 2004, analysis of the fluctuation in population density of the dominant species (Anourosorex squamipes) of small-sized rodents in Nanchong, Sichuan was made. Under indoor conditions, no cyclic variation was observed. Under out-door conditions, annual cyclic variation was present, expressed as two peaks in a year, one occurring in June and the other in November and December. The relative population density of the young animal group (I) was the greatest in winter and the smallest in spring, while for the second adult group (III), The highest population density occurred in summer and the lowest in winter. Three regression equations were established based on the adult/sub-adult ratio of the population, male animals and female animals: Y = 0.167 X - 4.065, Y = 0.148 X -2.754, and Y = 0.142 X - 1.830. Application of these regression equations prediction of the population of this animal species can be made 2 months in advance.

关 键 词：微尾鼩 变动 预测 回归分析 

分 类 号：S443.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]