三维变分同化在一η坐标中尺度模式预报中的应用  

The Application of Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilationin A η-Coordinate Mesoscale Model

作　　者：张万诚[1] 肖子牛[1] 郑建萌[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《高原气象》2005年第1期70-76,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：云南"滇中中尺度灾害性天气监测预警系统科学试验及应用研究"(2001NG4305);中国气象局数值预报技术创新研究项目(2001BA607B);国家重点开放实验室LASG部分基金共同资助

摘　　要：将中国气象局的GRAPES三维变分系统与-η坐标中尺度模式结合，对模式初始场进行同化前后对比试验，研究η坐标中尺度模式对云南降水的预报能力，并用于2002年5月10～15日00：00云南雨季开始降雨过程的模拟试验。试验结果表明，三维变分同化方案目标函数收敛快，采用同化方案的η模式预报的强降水中心、分布范围、预报精度比不进行同化的效果好。The three-dimensional variational assimilation is conducted in a η-coordinate mesoscale model. The initial fields of the model before and after the assimilation are compared in these experiments. The rainfall in the starting period of rainy season of Yunnan from 00:00 on 10 May to 00:00 on 15 May 2002 were simulated by the numerical model. The results show that the object function of the three-dimensional variational assimilation is quite fast in the convergence. In the predicting of both the severe rainfall centers and rain area distributions, the model forecast performances of model with the variational assimilation scheme are better than those without one.

关 键 词：-η坐标中尺度模式 GRAPES 三维变分同化 云南雨季 降水预报试验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]