对中国地震预报现状与未来的思考  

Pondering Over the Status and Future of Earthquake Prediction in China

作　　者：孙加林[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区地震局,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2005年第5期85-92,共8页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：本文是作者根据自己多年从事地震预报的经历与实践,将我国地震预报的38年历史分为四个阶段,概括了我国地震预报的主要进展和成就,指出地震预报的难点及我国地震预报的思路和技术上存在的几个问题,最后对我国地震预报发展战略提出思考。On the basis of the author′s experiences and practice in earthquake prediction over the years, the author divides the thirty eight-year history of earthquake in China into four stages; outlines the main progress and achievements in earthq uake prediction in China; points out the difficulties of earthquake prediction and some problems occurring in the train of thought and techniques of earthquake prediction in China; finally, ponders over the development strategy of earthqua ke prediction in China. The view-point and suggestion of author can be referenc e for earthquake predictor and department responsible for earthquake work

关 键 词：地震预报 历史分期 进展 难点与问题 发展战略 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]