以物理模型为指导开展中尺度地震预测试验场研究  

Carrying out the Study on Moderate Scale Experimental Field of Earthquake Prediction Under the Guidance of Physical Model

作　　者：李世愚[1] 和雪松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2005年第5期106-111,共6页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：震源物理的研究进展表明地震预测工程不仅是高科技问题,更重要的是需要以正确的物理模型作为指导。地震预测试验场的研究可以从气象学、地球物理、地球化学、矿山地震和瓦斯突出的研究中获得许多启示。在今后的十年中,要注意流体,特别是超临界流体在地震成因中的作用。地震试验场应有明确物理思路,形成多种物理方法的实质性格局,改变自由进出、过于分散的情况。建议除在京津、川滇等建立构造地震预测研究试验场外,还可以利用矿山、火山作为中尺度地震试验场。The development of earthquake source physics show that the engine of earthquake prediction is not only the advanced science and technology but the requirement o f the guidance of correct physics model that is of more important. The investiga tion of testing ground of earthquake prediction can get many inspirations from t he development of meteorology, geophysics, geochemistry, mining-shock and gas p rojecting. In the next decades we should pay more attention to the role of liqu ids especially super-critical liquids in the process of earthquake preparation. The definite train of thought and substantive setup with multiple methods are needed in the work of earthquake testing ground, and the condition of freely get in and out and too decentralize should be changed. We suggest to setup testing ground of earthquake prediction not only in Sichuan and Yunnan province and the area around Beijing and Tianjin, but in some of mine and volcano as moderate sc ale testing ground.

关 键 词：地震试验场 震源物理 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]