基于模拟技术的大型水电项目财务风险分析  

SIMULATION-BASED FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

作　　者：王振强[1] 钟登华[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学经管学院 [2]天津大学建工学院

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2005年第5期122-126,131,共6页China Civil Engineering Journal

摘　　要：随着国家水电项目融资渠道的多样化,以及大型水电项目投资巨大和建设周期长等特点,使投资项目的投资带有很大的不确定性,同时电量、电价以及运营成本的不确定性,这些将对项目未来的财务可行性产生巨大影响,在项目前期的财务评价中进行财务风险分析就显得非常重要。本文提出了基于概率论与模拟技术的工程项目财务风险分析方法,并在某大型水电站工程中进行了应用研究。With the diversification of financing channels and the characteristics of huge investment and long construction time of hydropower projects,the construction costs become extremely uncertain. In the meantime,the uncertainties in power output,price of electri city and operation/maintenance/refurbishment costs greatly influence the effectiveness of the project. Therefore,pre-construction financial risk analysis is very important to the suc cess of a project. In this paper,a financial risk analysis method based on probability theory and the Monte Carlo simulation technique is put forward and applied to the analysis of a hydropower project.

关 键 词：水电项目 风险分析 财务风险分析 MONTE CARLO模拟 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]