基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型——以沁水盆地为例  

A predictive model of gas content in coal reservoirs based on multiple stepwise regression analysis: a case study from Qinshui Basin

作　　者：李贵红[1] 张泓[1] 崔永君[1] 张培河[1] 董敏涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]煤炭科学研究总院西安分院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《煤田地质与勘探》2005年第3期22-25,共4页Coal Geology & Exploration

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2002CB211703);科技部社会公益专项资金项目(2001DIA10016)

摘　　要：以沁水盆地为例,运用多元逐步回归分析方法,建立了以Langmuir体积和含气饱和度为参数的含气量预测模型;复相关系数、F检验、t检验结果表明,该模型满足线性与方差齐性的假设,拟合效果较好。运用此模型,结合多因素权重分析确定的含气饱和度和实测的Langmuir体积数据,实现了沁水盆地山西组主煤层含气量预测。对比分析显示,该含气量预测模型有一定的可行性。Taken Qinshui Basin as an example a predictive model of gas content is established by multiple stepwise regression analysis, using Langmuir volume and gas saturation as its parameters. The result of multiple correlation coefficient testing, F-testing and t-testing indicates that the model meets the hypothesis testing of linearity and its matching effect is preferable. Based on the model and combined with gas saturation determined by the multifactor weight analysis and tested Langmuir volume data the gas content of main coal from the Shanxi Formation in the Qinshui Basin is predicted successfully. The comparative result indicates that the model is feasible to some extent.

关 键 词：煤储层 含气量 多元逐步回归分析 预测模型 沁水盆地 

分 类 号：P618.11[天文地球—矿床学]