鄱阳湖地区耕地变化及其驱动力研究 II.耕地变化驱动力分析  

Variation of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Poyang Lake RegionII.Analysis on Driving Forces of the Cultivated Land Variation

作　　者：陈美球[1] 刘序[1] 陈文波[1] 黄靓[1] 肖志豪[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2005年第3期326-329,共4页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30060020);江西省自然科学基金(0430051)资助项目

摘　　要：依据鄱阳湖地区1949～2002年耕地面积和社会经济统计数据,运用主成分分析和多元线性回归模型等统计方法分析该地区耕地面积变化的驱动因素。结果表明,在近53年里人口增加和第三产业发展是该地区耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素,粮食需求则是耕地面积增加的主要驱动因素。Based on statistical data of cultivated land and social and economic factors from 1949 to 2002 in Poyang Lake region, this paper discusses the driving forces by multi-variable statistical method. And the results show that the main driving factors in the reduction of cultivated land are population increase and the tertiary industry development, and the grain demand is the main driving factor in the increase of the cultivated land in Poyang Lake region during the past 53 years.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖地区 耕地变化驱动力 主成分分析 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F301.21