季节趋势模型在肿瘤住院患者分析中的应用  

Application of Seasonal Trend Model in Analyzing Inpatients with Tumor

作　　者：魏跃红[1] 肖农[2] 吴义家[2] 潘发明[1] 倪进发[1] 吕桦[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公卫学院流行病与卫生统计学系,230032 [2]安徽省庐江县人民医院

出　　处：《中国医院统计》2004年第3期202-204,共3页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

基　　金：安徽省教育厅科研基金课题 (编号 :5 2 2 2 0 4)

摘　　要：目的　了解 1997— 2 0 0 2年庐江县某二甲医院肿瘤住院患者基本构成 ,并预测 2 0 0 3— 2 0 0 4年度该院肿瘤住院患者人数 ,为医院管理者决策提供科学依据。方法　整理该院 1997— 2 0 0 2年《医院疾病分类年报表》资料 ,进行统计描述和季节趋势预测。结果　 1997— 2 0 0 2年该医院肿瘤患者住院人数占同期总住院人数的 10 .72 % ,预计2 0 0 3— 2 0 0 4年肿瘤住院患者分别为 12 2 3例、12 96例 ,且有明显逐年增加趋势。结论　该院肿瘤患者住院人数在同期总住院人数中占有相当比重 ,且有逐年增加趋势。医院管理者应合理分配卫生资源 ,加强肿瘤科室的建设。Objective To analyze the p roportion of tumorous inpatients in a general hospital in lujiang county between 1997 and 2002 and forecast the tumorous inpatients of the hospital from 2003 to 2004,which would provide scientific foundation for hospital administrators. Methods The data of all tumorous inpatients were coll ected from the annals of classified diseases in the hospital between 1997 and 20 02. The statistical description and Seasonal Trend Model were used to analyze and forecast.Results The number of tumorous inpat ients accounted for 10.72% of total inpatients between 1997 and 2002 in the hosp ital and will be up to 1223 and 1296 in the next two years respectively, which i s forecasted using seasonal trend model. There is an increasing trend for it. Conclusion The number of tumorous inpatients acco unts for a substantial proportion in total inpatients and increase obviously wit h time, which suggest that the administrators should allocate health resource reasonably and especially focus on oncological department. [

关 键 词：肿瘤 住院病人 构成分析 季节趋势模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]