基于季节调整的水资源承载力不确定性分析  

Analysis of uncertainty of water resource bearing capacity based on seasonal adjustment.

作　　者：熊樱[1] 曾光明[1] 黄国和[1] 李忠武[1] 焦胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学环境科学与工程系,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2005年第B06期73-76,共4页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(50425927;50225926);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20020532017)

摘　　要：为了更好的反映水资源情况与人类生活的关系，提出了新的水资源承载力计算公式作为衡量指标，并分析了水资源承载力的不确定性．提出季节调整方法处理水资源承载力，以1991-2002年广州流溪河某控制断面的实测数据为例，分析了季节调整后水资源承载力的变化规律与发展趋势，并做出2003年的水资源承载力预测值与实测值对比．结果显示，该断面水资源承载力具有显著的趋势性和季节性，预测结果符合实际情况．说明季节调整方法应用于水资源承载力的分析预测具有准确性和有效性．For better reflection of the relationship between water resource state and human living, a new calculation formula of water resource bearing capacity was suggested as a measure index; and the uncertainty of water resource bearing capacity was analyzed. The seasonal adjusting method for treating the water resource bearing capacity was suggested. The measured data of certainty of controlled section of Liuxi River from 1991 to 2002 in Guangzhou were used as example to analyze the change rule and the development tendency of water resource bearing capacity after seasonal adjustment were analyzed. The comparison of forecasted and measured values were carried in the year 2003. The water resource bearing capacity of the section possessed marked tendency and seasonal characters. The forecast results accorded with the actual situation, explaining that the seasonal adjustment method possessed accuracy and effectualness in analysis and forecast of water resource bearing capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 不确定性 季节调整 预测 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]