基于意向调查数据的非集计模型研究  

Study on Disaggregate Model Based on Stated Preference Data

作　　者：焦朋朋[1] 陆化普[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2005年第6期114-116,138,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：十五国家科技攻关重大资助项目(2002BA404A20B)

摘　　要：当交通系统中引入新的交通方式时,传统的基于实绩选择调查数据的交通需求预测方法对于方式分担预测将会无效。本文以新交通方式的分担率预测模型为研究对象,提出基于实绩选择调查和假设意向调查组合数据的非集计模型,对模型中各种交通方式的效用函数进行了深入研究,并以东直门至首都机场的轨道交通客流预测为例,进行了参数估计和轨道分担率预测。实例研究表明,模型能够较准确的预测出新交通方式的分担率。When a new traffic mode is introduced into current transportation system,the conventional travel demand forecasting method based on revealed preference data will be useless for modal split.Focusing on the modal split model of the new traffic mode,this paper put forward a disaggregate model based on the combination data of revealed preference and stated preference,and discussed in depth the utility function of each traffic mode.Further more,this paper applied the model in passenger volume forecast of the rail transit from Dongzhimen Station to Beijing Capital International Airport,estimated the parameters in the model,and forecasted the share of the rail transit.Experimental results show that the model can be accurately applied in modal split forecasting of new travel mode,and can greatly increase the forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：意向调查数据 实绩选择数据 非集计模型 效用函数 方式分担 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]