中国南方近半个世纪的雨涝变化特征  

Variation of characteristics of waterlogging by rain over southern China in the last half century

作　　者：王志伟[1] 翟盘茂[2] 唐红玉[3] 李芬[4] 

机构地区：[1]山西省卫星遥感减灾服务中心,山西太原030002 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]青海省气象台,青海西宁810001 [4]山西省气象科技服务中心,山西太原030002

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2005年第3期56-60,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家气象中心项目(ZK2002C-04)

摘　　要：根据1950-2000年我国629个站的逐月降水资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,计算了雨涝发生的范围,诊断了我国秦岭淮河以南广大南方地区雨涝发生发展的趋势和变化。研究发现,该地区雨涝覆盖范围有轻微的下降趋势,51年来最为严重的雨涝年是1954年,其次1983,1998和1961年也都比较严重;冬半年除11,12月份外,雨涝覆盖范围有较强的增长趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以来这种趋势更为强烈,尤其是1月和3月的雨涝范围扩大迅速,冬半年自20世纪60年代后期以来雨涝范围有明显的5～7年的振荡周期,而且这种振荡周期在逐渐缩短;夏半年雨涝范围趋于减小,呈下降态势,夏半年主要是4,5,9三个月的雨涝范围在减少,6,7,8月的雨涝范围在扩大;同时发现我国秦岭以南地区夏半年雨涝范围在大多数时间里有2年左右的振荡周期。Based on the monthly rainfall data of 629 meteorological stations in China from 1950 to 2000, the waterlogging scope in the region from Qinling Mountain and Huaihe river to the South China is calculated with Z-index as the standard to determine drought and waterlogging, the laws of waterlogging’s occurrence and development in the south of China are analysed. The study shows that the waterlogging scope in the south of China has a slightly decreasing tendency. The most severe year of waterlogging is 1954, following it are 1983,1998 and 1961. It is also found that the waterlogging scope has an increasing tendency in half year ~around winter except November & December and a decreasing tendency in half year around summer except June, July and August, these tendencies are more notable especially from 1990. In the meantime, the study also reveals that the waterlogging scope in half year ~around winter has an obvious variation period of 5~7 years from the late 1960’s, but in half year around summer the variation period is about 2 years.

关 键 词：中国南方 雨涝范围 变化特征 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]