新疆主要棉花产区年积温预测模型研究  

Study on the Models of Predicting the Annual Accumulated Temperature in the Main Cotton-production Regions in Xinjiang

作　　者：谭艳梅[1] 毛炜峄 李新建[3] 王慧 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆环境气象中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2005年第2期259-263,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家科技部社会公益项目"新疆棉区棉花冷害预报研究"

摘　　要：应用26类500hPa环流月特征指数,建立了和田、喀什、阿克苏西部、渭干河流域以及天山北麓5个主要棉花产区≥10℃,≥15℃,≥20℃的15个年积温预测模型。在建立的15个积温预测模型中,共入选了18类79个因子,以出现次数由多到少依次排列,北半球极涡中心强度(11次)、欧亚经向环流(8次)、西太平洋副高西伸脊点(7次)、北半球极涡中心位置(7次)、乌拉尔山脊强度(7次)、南方涛动指数(5次)、西太平洋副高北界(4次)、太平洋区极涡强度(4次)、欧亚纬向环流(4次)、东亚槽强度(4次)。新疆各棉花产区的积温与前一年北半球的高中低纬度的环流系统都有密切关系。各类年积温的大部分环流因子类型及其月份不同,反映了各棉花产区≥10℃,≥15℃,≥20℃年积温出现的初(终)日时间差异;个别环流因子的类型及月份都是相同的,也反映出在某一时段气温的高低对3类积温都有影响。Cotton growth, yield and quality are all related to annual accumulated temperature. Cold disasters are seriously harmful to cotton production in Xinjiang, and the annual accumulated temperature in the years when cold disasters occur is generally lower than the average. It is of significance to predict the annual accumulated temperature before cotton seeding. In this paper 15 models are separately developed by using the eigenvalues of 26 general circulations at 500 hPa for predicting the annual accumulated temperatures of ≥10 ℃, ≥15 ℃ and ≥20 ℃ in 5 main cotton-production regions in Xinjiang. In the models 79 factors in 18 general circulation indices are selected. The annual accumulated temperatures in all the cotton-production regions are closely related to the previous general circulation indices of the Northern Hemisphere. Among these selected factors, the dominant factors are different from the different regions and months, which reveal that the beginning and finishing dates of the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃, ≥15 ℃ and ≥20 ℃ are different from the different regions and months. All the 15 models of predicting annual accumulated temperature pass the confidence test of 0.01, the average prediction accuracy of annual accumulated temperature during the period from 1961 to 1995 is 93.5%, especially it is about 95% in the cotton-production regions in Kashgar Prefecture, Ogan River watershed and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and the average prediction accuracy of annual accumulated temperature during the period from 1996 to 2002 is 85.5%.

关 键 词：棉花产区 预测模型 积温 新疆 500hPa环流 西太平洋副高 南方涛动指数 渭干河流域 北半球 特征指数 天山北麓 出现次数 经向环流 中心位置 纬向环流 环流系统 中低纬度 时间差异 20℃ 阿克苏 乌拉尔 涡强度 东亚槽 子类型 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]