社会系统可持续性建模与仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation for the Sustainability of Social System

作　　者：关晓菡[1] 郑勇[2] 顾培亮[3] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学信息工程学院,北京100041 [2]北方工业大学机电工程学院,北京100041 [3]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2005年第6期107-113,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(79770060)

摘　　要：　提出了社会系统的狭义可持续性与广义可持续性的概念与数学定义,建立了社会系统的控制论模型以及狭义可持续性约束与广义可持续性衡量标准,并对社会系统可持续发展模型进行了仿真,仿真结果预测了系统未来的演化趋势,分析仿真结果得出的结论可以为制定可持续发展政策提供参考建议.The concepts and mathematical definitions for two kinds of sustainability of social systems, the narrow sense sustainability and the broad sense sustainability, are put forward in this paper. The control theory models of the social system, as well as the narrow sense sustainability constraints and the broad sense sustainability criteria are established. A sustainable development model is simulated, whose results give prediction for system's future behavior and can be analyzed to give suggestion on the related policies.

关 键 词：可持续发展 建模 仿真 狭义可持续性 广义可持续性 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]