黑河流域降水的时空特征及预报方法  

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Precipitation in Heihe Field

作　　者：曹玲 窦永祥 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省张掖市气象局,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2005年第2期35-38,59,共5页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省科技攻关计划"西北干旱成因及其应用"(CGS012-A45-118)项目;干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM200414)

摘　　要：应用1960～2000年黑河流域13个站41a的年降水资料,通过EOF和REOF方法分析了黑河流域年降水的空间分布特征,并进行气候分区;采用线性倾向估计研究黑河流域年降水的变化趋势。在以上分析的基础上,进行流域分区、分季节降水预报。经评分检验,达到了一定的准确率,预报效果稳定、可靠,具有一定的实用价值。In this paper, using annual precipitation data of 13 stations during 1960 to 2000, characteristics of spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Heihe field are analyzed and division of climate district is done with EOF and REOF methods. Tendency of annual precipitation in Heihe filed is studied by using linear tendency estimation. On the base of above analysis, precipitation can be predicted in each divided area and in different season .Through marking examining, it has reached certain rate of accuracy. The result of prediction is stable,dependable and available.

关 键 词：黑河流域 降水 时空特征 预报方法 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]