作物生育期降雨量预测的灰色自记忆模型  

Self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period

作　　者：李荣峰[1] 沈冰[1] 张金凯 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]山西省水利科学研究所,山西太原030002

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2005年第3期19-21,53,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家863计划项目(编号:2002AA2Z4311).

摘　　要：根据灰色系统理论得出作物生育期降雨序列的GM(1,1)微分方程,建立了作物生育期降雨量的灰色自记忆预测模型.将该模型应用于冬小麦和玉米生育期降雨量拟合及预测,结果表明,这种基于灰色微分方程又利用了多个观测往值信息的预测模型具有较高的计算精度.GM(1,1)differential equation of the precipitation time series of crop growth period was attained based on grey theory. The self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period was established; and the fitting and forecast for the precipitation of growth period of winter wheat and corn were performed with this model. The results show that the model based on differential equation as well as including historical information has the advantage of high accuracy.

关 键 词：作物生育期降雨量 灰色微分方程 自记忆预测模型 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]