近140年中国、北半球和全球气温的标度律  

Scaling Laws of Temperature Anomaly over Global, Northern Hemisphere, and China in Recent 140 Years

作　　者：江田汉[1] 邓莲堂[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学系,北京100871 [2]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2005年第3期410-414,共5页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家气象中心自筹经费项目(ZK2002ASZ07)资助

摘　　要：运用非趋势波动分析方法,有效地消除数据中噪声和非平稳性质的影响,研究全球、北半球和中国近140年气温变化的长程幂律相关性。结果表明:全球气温、北半球气温和中国气温都有由交叉点划分的两个标度不变区域,可能对应两个不同的物理机制。其一,都可以表现出正长程相关的性质,而且全球气温的持续性最强,北半球次之,中国气温最弱;其二,全球气温和北半球气温还可以有几乎是1/f噪声性质的变化,中国气温则可表现出介于1/f和布朗噪声之间的行为。To study the long range power-law correlations of themonthly average anomaliesover the global, Northern Hemisphere, and China in the recent 140 years,the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)method is applied in this paper, which can effectively eliminate noise and possible nonstationarities in the data. The preliminary results show that there exist two different scaling invariant ranges, divided by one crossover in the three temperature series, which may indicatetwo different underlyingphysical mechanisms. Fist of all, they all present the positive long range correlations, and the persistence of the global temperature is the strongest, while China weaker than Northern Hemisphere. Secondly, the global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures can nearly behavior like 1/f noise, and China temperature can show behaviors between 1/f noise and Brown noise.

关 键 词：温度序列 气候变化 非趋势波动分析 长程相关性 

分 类 号：P463[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]