R&D投资评价的期权博弈方法应用研究  

A study on the application of options game method in evaluation of R&D investment

作　　者：杨勇[1] 达庆利[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2005年第4期51-54,127,共5页Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)

摘　　要：R&D投资具有不可逆和不确定性的特征,传统的净现值法由于忽略了R&D投资的期权价值,从而低估了R&D项目的价值,而目前利用实物期权理论评价企业R&D投资时又忽略了竞争对手战略行动的影响。基于此,结合实物期权方法和博弈论的期权博弈方法成为评价双寡头垄断的市场结构下企业R&D投资决策问题的最佳工具,不但分析了R&D投资的期权价值,而且还将战略互动纳入到模型中。案例结果表明了该方法的有效性。Irreversibility and uncertainty characterize investment in R&D.The value of R&D project under estimation used net present value approach which neglects the option value of investment in R&D. Further more, the strategic behavior was ignored by using real option theory to evaluate R&D investment. Based on real option theory and game theory, an option game method was applied to evaluate R&D investment under the condition of the market structure of duopoly. Not only the value of options is considered but the effect of the action competitor is taken into account .The result seems to indicate that this model can provide the right R&D investment decision support for manager.

关 键 词：实物期权 不确定条件下的投资 期权博弈方法 R&D投资 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]