越南和泰国水稻产量预报研究  

Research on the rice yield forecast in Vietnam and Thailand

作　　者：刘锦銮[1] 何健[1] 沙奕卓[2] 王惠英[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候与农业气象中心,广东广州510080 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报》2005年第3期1-4,共4页Journal of South China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家高技术应用部门发展项目"全球主要农作物产量气象卫星综合估测系统研究"

摘　　要：应用全球海温月平均温度和500hPa月平均高度格点资料,分析越南和泰国水稻产量与海温变化和环流变化的关系.采用11种不同的统计方法对趋势产量进行处理,经相关普查,运用逐步回归方法建立了不同气象产量序列与海温、环流回归模型.经统计检验,越南、泰国通过生长曲线方法处理的趋势产量和气象产量,回归效果较好.在分析回归模型物理意义的基础上,对2002年的产量进行了试报检验,误差仅2%～5%,说明可以在实践中应用.This paper analyzed the relationship between the rice yields of Vietnam and Thailand, and global monthly average temperature of the sea surface and the height of 500 hPa. To separate the trends yield and meteorological yield, eleven different statistical methods were adopted. According to relevant widespread investigations, the regression models of different meteorological yield and the sea surface temperature and the circulation were built up by using step regression method based on the coefficient. The result of the tendency yield and meteorological yield estimated through growth curve method of Vietnam and Thailand are preferable by statistical testing. Based on the physical significance of the regression model, the yield in 2002 was predicted and the error was only 2%-5%. The results may be applied in practice.

关 键 词：水稻 产量 预报 越南 泰国 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]