修正的GM(1,1)模型在预测离退休、退职人口数中的应用  

The Apply of the Revised GM(1,1) Model to Predict the Number of Pre-retirements, Retirees and Outgoing Members

作　　者：王茶香[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《上饶师范学院学报》2005年第3期86-90,共5页Journal of Shangrao Normal University

摘　　要：离休、退休、退职人员数与制约当前社会经济发展的两大问题即就业问题和养老保险问题息息相关,因此正确地预测离休、退休、退职人员数,对国家相关政策的制定有一定的指导作用。本文运用修正的GM(1,1)模型对离休、退休、退职人员数进行了预测,取得了很好的效果。<Abstrcat>The number of pre-retirements, retirees and outgoing members is closely bound up with the pressing issues of employment and old-age insurance, both of which restrict the social economic development of China. Therefore, it serves, to a certain extent, as guidance for national policy making to accurately estimate the number of the three groups.

关 键 词：修正GM(1 1)模型 灰色预测 误差 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]