疫情传染状态判别方法研究——以SARS疫情为例  

Study on the Method of Distinguishing the Stages of Epidemic Situation——A Case Study of SARS

作　　者：龙文[1] 王惠文[1] 李大鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学复杂数据分析研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中国软科学》2005年第6期153-157,共5页China Soft Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助(项目编号:9002002)

摘　　要：本文从定义SARS疫情的标志性参数出发,提出了对疫情发展过程进行阶段划分的基本方法,并且分析了各阶段标志参数的主要特征。根据这个指标体系,文章就几个主要标志性参数对北京和香港的疫情发展过程进行比较,分析SARS疫病传播规律,验证该统计方法在分析大规模恶性传染病时的有效性与合理性。文章所提出的思想和方法对于类似恶性流行病的统计分析工作具有一定的启示和参考。Based on the study of an indicator index system that depicts the epidemic situation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), this paper proposes an approach to divide the epidemic process of SARS into four typical stages, and studies the character of every stage of the indicator index. According to the indicator index system, the paper compares the epidemic situation of Beijing with that of Hong Kong, analyses the spreading rules of SARS and validate the validity and rationality of the statistical method when it is used in large-scale malignant epidemic disease. The thought and method this paper puts forward have certain enlightenment and reference to statistics and analysis of similar malignant epidemic diseases.

关 键 词：SARS疫情 标志性参数 状态比较 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]