深圳市供水量的最优组合预测  

Optimal Combination Forecasting of Water Supply Quantity of Shenzhen City

作　　者：厉红梅[1] 李适宇[1] 林高松[1] 林卫强[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学环境科学与工程学院,广东广州510275 [2]深圳市环境保护局,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2005年第4期18-22,共5页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：广东省科技百项工程资助项目(项目编号2KB06202S)

摘　　要：城市供水系统是一个复杂的大系统,供水量受多种因素的共同影响。本文以深圳市最近20多年的供水量历史数据为基础,建立了深圳市供水量的最优组合预测模型。该模型具有较高的预测精度,组合预测的预测效果优于任意一种单一预测的预测效果,供水量预测结果对深圳市未来供水的短期或长期规划能起到重要的宏观指导作用。Urban water supply system is one of large scale complex systems and urban water supply quantity is influenced by several factors together.According to the historical data of water supply quantity of Shenzhen City in the last twenty years,optimal combination forecasting model of water supply quantity of Shezhen City was set up. Accuracy of this model is higher and forecasting effectiveness of the combination forecasting model is better than that of any model. The forecasting results will take importantly play on the short-term or long-term water supply programming of Shenzhen City in future.

关 键 词：深圳 供水量 组合预测 

分 类 号：TU911[建筑科学—建筑理论]