我国玉米对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究  

Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Maize to Climate Change in China

作　　者：杨修[1] 孙芳[1] 林而达[1] 居辉[1] 熊伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2005年第4期54-57,共4页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004-BA611B-02);中加气候变化合作项目(C5)

摘　　要：文章利用英国Hadley中心PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景格点数据,输入CERES_Maize作物模型,对我国未来(2 070 s)不同格点玉米产量进行预测,并依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来玉米气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性进行研究,找出了未来我国玉米的气候变化敏感区和脆弱区,对指导我国不同玉米生产区有效适应未来气候变化具有重要的科学意义。By using B2 climate scenario produced by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) and the maize yield data from CERES_Maize model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of maize to future climate change (2070s) in China were studied based on the yield variation and GIS mapping. The sensitive and vulnerable areas of maize to future climate change were identified, which possessed great scientific significance for different maize producing areas in China to effectively adapt the future climate change.

关 键 词：玉米 气候变化 敏感性 脆弱性 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]