东亚货币合作的现实选择  

Realistic Choice of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

作　　者：杜秋莹[1] 李国平[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《预测》2005年第4期61-65,共5页Forecasting

摘　　要：区域经济一体化是当今世界发展的重要趋势,加强货币合作、建立更可置信的货币制度,成为金融危机之后东亚地区的迫切需求。本文运用计量经济学的方法对东亚国家之间的OCA指数进行预测,不同地区OCA指数的巨大差异表明目前构建统一货币联盟的条件尚不具备,鉴于OCA指数的差异性,首先在联系较为紧密的小区域、次区域内部进行货币整合,建立次区域货币联盟,然后在此基础上实现整个东亚地区的货币一体化,是东亚货币合作的现实选择。The integration of regional economy is an important trend in the future. The infection of Asian financial crisis exposes the serious drawback that various countries of east Asia lack the monetary coordination. Strengthening monetary cooperation and setting up monetary system that can be believed even more, become the urgent demand of east Asia. The paper uses econometrics method to predict OCA index between the east Asian countries on the basis of the review of the relevant theory. The OCA index decreases progressively, which indicates that east Asia monetary cooperation is feasibility. In view of the difference of each regional OCA indexes, the author has put forward the idea of setting up the monetary alliance in the sub-region firstly, expanding progressively and realizing the currency cooperation of the whole east Asia finally.

关 键 词：最优货币区 货币合作 OCA 次区域货币联盟 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]