土壤湿度的一种统计预报模型初步试验  

THE SOIL HUMIDITY PREDITION MODEL EXPERIMENT RESEARCH OF THE CLIMATIC HUMID ZONE

作　　者：陈斌[1,2] 丁裕国[1] 刘晶淼[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,省气象灾害重点实验室,南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》2005年第3期231-237,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40375035)资助

摘　　要：探讨土壤湿度模拟与预报的可能途径,本文从水量平衡的物理原理出发,利用统计模型建立完全预报方程与简化预报方程,以淮河流域能量与水循环试验(HUBEX)的外场观测试验区所得淮河史灌河流域土壤水分的加密观测资料及其同期降水、蒸发、径流等水文观测资料(逐日资料)为例,进行了预报试验。结果表明,预报精度约为87.3%～88.3%。可见,利用前一日和前两日的降水和土壤湿度可以尝试作为估计未来土壤湿度的预报因子,但这只是一次初步的试验。With the aid of the soil water content field observation data (per day data from May 21,1998 to August 31,1998) during intensive observation of Huaihe River Basin and Water Cycle Experiment (HUBEX),and the per day hydrographic observation data including precipitation, evaporation,runoff of the same term, the possible way of soil water content simulation and prediction in climatic humid zone is discussed. Based on the water equilibrium theory, we got and tested a total prediction equation and a predigested one.The results show that the forecast precision of the former is 87.3%, the one of the latter is 86.3%。 So we can draw a conclusion that the rainfall, one day before and two days before, and soil humidity one day before could be used preferably to estimate the coming day soil water content.

关 键 词：湿润气候区 土壤湿度 回归方程 统计预报 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]