河蟹生态养殖效益对气候变化的响应及预测研究  

RESEARCH ON FORECAST OF ECOTYPE RIVER-CRAB RAISING BENEFITS AND ITS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

作　　者：杜筱玲[1] 王保生[2] 袁正国[2] 陈国荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093 [2]江西省环境预报中心,南昌330046

出　　处：《气象科学》2005年第3期299-305,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(编号:04EFN217400412)资助

摘　　要：利用军山湖区河蟹生态养殖产量资料,分析了1992～2002年来湖区河蟹生产效益的年际波动,同时结合生态放养期间的气象条件,讨论了河蟹生态养殖效益对气候变化的响应:一是河蟹品质对大湖放养当年7～8月≥35℃高温变化的响应;二是河蟹成熟期对自然生长期积温变化的响应;三是河蟹收获总量对关键期降水变化的响应。本文还设计了效益年景与气候年景的评定模式,通过两种评定结果的比较,讨论了以气候年景定性预测效益年景的可行性,为进一步作好河蟹生态养殖产区的预报与情报服务提供依据。Based on the data of ecotype river-crab raising benefits and climatic resources from 1992 to 2002,we have made an analysis on the yearly fluctuation of ecotype river-crab raising benefit in Junshan lake of Jiangxi Province.We also discussed three kinds of response relationships:relationship between the mature date of river-crab and the accumulated temperature during the natural growth period;relationship between the river-crab quality and the days with temperature ≥35 ℃ in July and August;relationship between the harvest and the rainfall amount during the two key periods.Then we designed two methods of evaluating the year’s harvest and the climate harvest , and the results show the qualitative forecast of year’s harvest of river-crab raising in the Junshan lake proved to be feasible.

关 键 词：河蟹养殖 生态 效益 气候变化 响应 

分 类 号：S915[农业科学—水产科学]