新疆三工河流域山地、平原区气候变化特征对比分析  

Analysis on the Climate Change in the Mountainous Region and Plain in the Sangong River Basin,Xinjiang

作　　者：杨余辉[1] 魏文寿[2] 杨青[2] 崔宇[1] 马玉香 

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学生命与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830053 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2005年第3期320-324,共5页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：科技部重大基础研究前期专项(2002CCA04600)

摘　　要：通过分析三工河流域近40a气候变化特征,结果表明:(1)近40年三工河流域平原区平均温度以0.27℃/10a趋势上升,和全疆变化一致,低于北疆地区;流域山区增温趋势较慢,平均每10年以0.14℃的趋势增温,但冬季增温显著,暖冬趋势明显。(2)三工河流域平原区1987-2000年比1961-1986年平均降水量偏多35%;三工河流域山区,20世纪80年代降水增加较显著,90年代降水量减少到70年代水平。(3)三工河流域平原区和山区气温、降水,同一气象要素呈现正相关;三工河流域平原区温度与降水没有明显相关性;山区温度与降水表现出负相关性。(4)三工河流域山区温度和降水用Mann-kendall方法检验没有达到突变水平,工河流域平原区降水,用Mann-kendall方法检验在1984年发生了由低向高的突变,温度在1995年发生了由低向高的突变。近36a三工河流域平原区干旱指数下降趋势显著,用Mann-kendall方法检验在1983年发生了由高向低的突变;山区干旱指数下降较慢。In this paper,the characteristics of climate change in the Sangong River Basin since recent 30 years are analyzed,the results are as follows(:1)The long-term annual temperature on decade scale is increased by 0.29 ℃ in the plain of the Sangong River Basin,which is higher than that of the whole Xinjiang but is lower than that of north Xinjiang; The annual temperature on decade scale is increased by 0.14 ℃ in the mountainous region of the Sangong River Basin,which is lower than that in the plain,the temperature increase in winter is significant, and the trend of warming winter is obvious.(2)In plain in the Sangong River Basin,the annual precipitation was increased by 37% during the period from 1987 to 2000 than that during the period from 1961 to 1986; in the mountainous region of the basin,the annual precipitation increase was significant in the 1980s,but in the 1990s it was reduced to the level of in the 1970s.(3)There are the positive correlations of temperature and precipitation between the plain and the mountainous region in the Sangong River Basin,there is no significant correlation between the temperature and precipitation in the plain,but there is a negative correlation between the temperature and precipitation in the mountainous region.(4)The tests using Mann-Kendall method reveal that there is no sudden climate change in temperature and precipitation in the mountainous region in the Sangong River Basin; in the plain,however,the precipitation increase has gotten to the level of sudden climate change since 1984,and the temperature increase has gotten to the level of sudden climate change since 1995. The aridity index in the plain of the Sangong River Basin has been significantly decreased since recent 36 years,but it has been slowly decreased in the mountainous region of the basin.

关 键 词：三工河流域 气候变化 气候突变 干旱指数 新疆 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]