重力坝变形统计回归分析模型及工程应用  

Deformation Statistic Regression Analysis Model for Gravity Dam and Its Application

作　　者：张强勇[1] 刘豆豆[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心,山东济南250061

出　　处：《人民黄河》2005年第7期37-39,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40272120)

摘　　要：通过对一水电站重力坝多年变形监测资料的分析,考虑水位、温度和时效对大坝变形的影响,采用逐步回归分析法建立了重力坝变形统计回归分析模型。计算结果表明:变形统计值与变形监测值吻合较好,统计复相关系数较大,估计标准误差较小。统计回归分析模型较标准地反映了大坝的变形规律,为评价大坝运行安全性态、预测大坝变形发展趋势提供了有效的分析方法和手段。It adopts gradual regression analysis to establish the deformation statistic regression analysis model through analysis on observed deformation data of a gravity dam of a hydro-power station for years and considering the influence of water level, temperature and aging on dam deformation. The calculation results show that the statistic and monitoring value are fairly identical, multiple correlation coefficients bigger and estimated standard error smaller. The deformation statistic regression analysis model has reflected the deformation rule of the dam in a standard way and provides effective analysis means and methods for evaluating the safety character of dam operation and predicting the development trend of dam deformation.

关 键 词：重力坝 回归分析 模型 复相关系数 估计标准误差 

分 类 号：TV642.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]