中国水资源长期需求展望  

Prospects for the long-term water resources demand in China

作　　者：沈福新[1] 耿雷华[2] 曹霞莉 王建生[2] 钟华平[2] 徐澎波[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]江阴市水利局,江苏江阴214431

出　　处：《水科学进展》2005年第4期552-555,共4页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2003CB415104);"十五"国家重点科技攻关资助项目(2001-BA611B-02-04)~~

摘　　要：通过对现状人口、主要经济发展指标与用水量、用水定额的关系及其变化趋势的分析,在综合考虑未来水资源条件、社会经济发展、科技进步以及用水效率、节水水平等影响因素变动条件下,建立综合影响因素与需水量指标的关系,确定未来需水量增长率的变化及人均用水量、单位产值用水量等指标的变动幅度。根据预测的各水平年的人口、经济发展等指标,估算相应的水资源需水量。Through the analysis on the relationship and variable tendency between the present population situation, main index of economic development and the amount of water consumption, the quota of water consumption, meanwhile, synthetically considering about the variation of influential factor such as water resources condition in future, economic and social development, science and technical progress, the efficiency of water consumption and the level of water conservation, etc, the relationship between the above-mentioned synthetical influential factors and the index of water demand amount is established and the variation of growth rate of water demand in future and the variation breadth of other indices such as water consumption per capita and water consumption unit value of output are confirmed. Furthermore, the amount of water resources demand in 2030 and 2050 are calculated according to the predicted indices such as population and economic development of the target year.

关 键 词：中国 水资源 需水量 水平年 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]