随机差分方程分析及其在人才预测研究中的应用  

Stochastic Difference Equations and Its Application in Manpower Forecasting

作　　者：孙林岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》1995年第2期29-34,共6页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

摘　　要：本文介绍了随机差分方程分析方法（主要由互汇分析及因果分析构成），并利用该方法研究了１９５１—１９９１年间某市科技人数与地方国内生产总值之间的相互关系．结果发现：在该期间两者之间存在着长期稳定的关系，且有由国内生产总值到科技人数的因果关系．研究为进一步建立人才预测模型奠定了基础，并说明了该方法是一种很有用的系统分析工具。This paper introduces stochastic difference equations, which include cointegration analysis causal test etc. Then, the method is used to analyze the relationship between manpower and GDP (Gross Domestic Production) in Xi'an. It is found that there is a long run steady-state relationship between the variables, and also a causality from GDP tO the manpower in past 40years. The results set a foundation for forther research on the forecasting of manpower in Xi'an.

关 键 词：互汇分析 因果分析 人才学 

分 类 号：G316[文化科学]